Tuesday, June 29, 2010

For The First Time in Fifty Years...


Watching the early news, the well-spoken news correspondent sweating his you-know-whats-its-off standing in Time Square claimed "for the first time in some fifty years" there's a new automotive-related IPO.... Followed by "and I can't even afford one of these..." pointing to a Tesla Roadster...

Never mind fifty years ago- this has to be the first auto IPO in the NASDAQ's history... for sure.

Tesla's IPO debuts today.

Fifty years ago- if there was a new IPO relating to a car- chances are- it would have been for a profitable company- but times have changed.

Seems despite producing a six-figure, all-electric roadster, and a CEO who is rumored to be near-bankrupt himself due to divorce... Tesla's numbers aren't too-much in the black either.

An IPO will help them raise much needed cash; however, traditionally- equities (at least in the 50-year-old view of them anyway- call me old-fashioned) have always been a bet on a company's future profits... Which for now, look like a long-shot.

Why didn't Tesla offer a bond offering?

Well- I don't mean to speculate- but... Any more debt riding on this ultra-high-end, six-figure electric sports car maker... Well, I don't think another debt offering was a viable option- if not for their own reputation and creditworthiness.

The company claims they're profitable producing six-figure, electric sports cars but blaming their lack of profits on the debut of their all-electric sedan.

So as I was chugging away on the treadmill- I couldn't help but look back on history- on another IPO that went bust based-on promises of- a "car of the future."

Remember the Tucker '48?

Preston Tucker built a better mousetrap too. To build his company he issues shares of stock based on "the car of the future... today."

He even sold dealer franchises... Long story (and a great movie) short- the Big Three put an end to Preston Tucker and his car... tipping-off the SEC into a full-scale investigation that mired the man and his name into history. Better car or not.

I'm not saying Tesla will suffer the same fate- but offering stocks for a company on shaky ground- in an industry near impossible to penetrate on a large (read profitable) scale... Well... it's not looking so good.

Car of the future... or profits of the future? When it comes to stocks- I'll still stick to the latter.

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